Published July 30, 2025 • By Luciano Martinez, REALTOR® | RE/MAX Platinum
The Rio Grande Valley (RGV) has spent the last three years in a red-hot seller’s market, driven by record-low inventory, historically cheap mortgages, and pandemic-era migration. But recent data out of McAllen, Mission, and Edinburg suggests a subtle—but important—pivot toward equilibrium. Listing counts are up double digits, price growth has flattened, and DOM is lengthening. If you’ve been waiting for the market to cool—or wondering whether to list before momentum changes—read on.
1. Inventory: the canary in the coal mine
• Active listings have exploded 31.7 % year-over-year across Hidalgo County (April 2025, Federal Reserve data). McAllen specifically tallied 809 homes for sale in June, a 15.2 % jump in just one month (Rocket Homes).
Economists call five to six months of supply a “balanced” market. While the Valley is still under that threshold, we’ve moved sharply off the 1.8-month lows of 2022. More choice means buyers can negotiate again, and sellers must dial in pricing and presentation.
2. Pricing: deceleration, not free-fall
According to Redfin, the median sale price in McAllen fell 8.4 % year-over-year to $265 K in June 2025. That’s not a crash—it’s a recalibration after 38 % cumulative appreciation between 2020-2023. Importantly, homes that are turnkey and correctly priced are still commanding near-list offers; it’s the “reach” listings that linger and take price cuts.
3. Days on Market: speed is slowing
Average DOM stretched to 62 days in June versus 48 a year ago (Redfin). Zillow’s “days to pending” metric echoes the trend at 55 days. In practice, that means:
- Buyers have an extra weekend—or two—to tour, compare, and negotiate.
- Sellers must brace for longer showing windows and invest in standout marketing (professional photos, video tours, aggressive online exposure).
4. Mortgage rates & affordability
Thirty-year fixed rates have hovered near 6.6 % this summer. Every 1-point jump shaves roughly 10 % off purchasing power, so rate sensitivity is real. Yet the RGV remains among the most affordable U.S. metros for first-time buyers—one reason McAllen just ranked #1 nationally for entry-level affordability.
5. Strategy tips for buyers & sellers
Buyers:
- Negotiate repairs and concessions again. With inventory rising, more sellers will consider covering closing costs or rate buy-downs.
- Lock before rates rise. If Fed inflation battles push mortgages toward 7 %, today’s 6-handles will look cheap.
- Focus on value, not headlines. A modest price dip is nice, but interest savings compound faster.
Sellers:
- Price it right from day one. Overpricing by just 3 % can double your time on market.
- Stage and market aggressively. Inventory means buyers scroll fast; professional photos, drone video, and SEO-friendly descriptions get clicks.
- Be ready to negotiate. Inspection credits and closing-cost assistance are back on the table.
6. Looking ahead: what to watch
Analysts expect modest price stability for the remainder of 2025. If active inventory sustains a 25-30 % YOY gain and mortgage rates stay above 6 %, we’ll flirt with a balanced market by early 2026. Key metrics to track:
• Months of supply • New-listing count • Sale-to-list ratio • DOM trend
Bookmark our monthly RGV Market Snapshot blog series for real-time updates.
Need hyper-local advice? Let’s dive into your neighborhood numbers and craft a winning plan—whether you’re buying, selling, or investing.
Call 956-862-1556 | Book a strategy call | Check your home value online
© 2025 Luciano Martinez • RE/MAX Platinum • McAllen, Mission & Edinburg Real Estate
Leave a Reply