Is the RGV Shifting from a Seller’s to a Balanced Market? | July 2025 Update

By Luciano MartinezBuying, Selling August 1, 2025

Home and front yard in McAllen, Texas — A McAllen home sitting on a beautiful yard.

The Rio Grande Valley (RGV) has spent the last three years in a red-hot seller’s market, driven by low inventory, cheap mortgages, and migration. But recent data out of McAllen, Mission, and Edinburg is showing a slow shift toward balance. Listing counts are up, price growth has cooled, and days on market are stretching. If you’ve been waiting for the market to calm down — or you’re wondering if you should list before things soften — this update is for you.

1. Inventory: the canary in the coal mine

Active listings jumped 31.7% year over year across Hidalgo County as of April 2025 (Fed data). McAllen alone had about 809 homes for sale in June, a 15.2% month-over-month increase (Rocket Homes). That’s a big signal. In real estate, five to six months of supply is considered a “balanced” market. We’re still under that in the Valley, but we’re no longer at the 1.8-month lows of 2022. More inventory = more choice for buyers, and it forces sellers to get serious on price and condition.

2. Pricing: deceleration, not a crash

Redfin shows the median sale price in McAllen down about 8.4% year over year to $265,000 in June 2025. That sounds scary until you remember we had roughly 38% appreciation from 2020 to 2023. So what we’re seeing now is more like a leveling-off than a collapse. The good houses — clean, updated, priced right — are still selling. The ones that were “testing the market” are the ones taking price cuts.

3. Days on Market: speed is slowing

Average DOM moved out to about 62 days in June vs. 48 days a year prior (Redfin). Zillow’s “days to pending” metric is tracking around 55 days. What that means in real life:

Buyers can take another weekend to look.
Sellers should expect longer showing windows.
Marketing matters again — photos, video, and good copy.

4. Mortgage rates and affordability

Thirty-year fixed rates have been hovering around 6.6% this summer. Every 1% bump in rate can shave ~10% off purchasing power, so buyers do feel it. The good news? The RGV is still one of the most affordable Texas metros for first-time buyers, which is why McAllen keeps showing up on national rankings for entry-level affordability.

5. Strategy tips for buyers & sellers

For buyers:

Start negotiating again. With more homes on the market, sellers are more open to closing costs, rate buydowns, and repairs.
Move on the rate you like. If the Fed pushes rates closer to 7%, today’s rate will look good.
Shop value, not drama. A small price drop is nice, but a good payment and good condition matter more long-term.

For sellers:

Price it right from day one. Overpricing even 2–3% right now can double your time on market.
Market like it’s 2020… but better. Pro photos, drone, social, and good SEO on your listing page can get you more showings.
Be flexible. Concessions, repairs, and closing-cost help are back — plan for it.

Classic South Texas home with pool and palm trees — More signs are popping up across Hidalgo County — good news for buyers who wanted more options.

6. Looking ahead: what to watch

Most analysts expect flat to slightly positive pricing for the rest of 2025 in the Valley — nothing like the pandemic spike. If inventory keeps rising 25–30% year over year and rates stay above 6%, we could be very close to a truly balanced market by early 2026. Keep an eye on: